Daily FX Analysis, Sep 03 – Trade Idea’s for BTC EUR & AUD – RBA Cash Rate In Focus!

On Monday, the greenback has been the undisputable leader of the Forex board, particularly through the last week of trading, in what shifted a rather momentous month of August, characterised by the intensification of the US-China trade war, with the latest releases to hike tariffs coming into effect this last Sunday. 

Earlier today, during the Asian session open, the dollar index was at its highest in more than two years versus the bucket of 6 major currencies, while global stocks were punished by U.S.-China trade disputes.

China has lodged a complaint against the United States at the World Trade Organization over U.S. import duties, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said on Monday. With that, the market continues to follow the safe-haven appeal, keeping investors cautious.

Economic Calendar – RBA Rate & ISM Manufacturing



BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has surged over the past few days and has again passed the $10,000 threshold. Previously, the Bitcoin lost $600 just in the course of a half-hour — sinking below the $10,000 mark before collapsing to a weekly low of $9,362 on Aug. 29. The price has slowly increased since then and is currently trading over $10,400, up 6.54% from its previous 24-hour value.

The BTCUSD has already violated the immediate resistance area of 9791 and the psychological area of 10,000. Previously we discussed, the BTC has reversed from a suggested support area of 9315. Sentiment remained bullish with an immediate resistance around 9,800 and 10,049. On the lower side, support continues to prevail around 9,582. Fortunately, Bitcoin has hit both of our suggested levels. What’s next? 

BTC/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

9,951.93     10,653.2

9,504.81     10,907.35

8,803.54    11,608.62

Pivot Point 10,206.08

 BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

BTC has tested both of our forecasted levels 9,800 and 10,049 as it showed a strong bullish run. The Doji candle on the 4-hour timeframe may drive slight retracement until 10,000 level. Whereas, a continuation of the bullish trend may lead BTC towards 10,850 level today.

EUR/USD – Unstoppable Bearish Trend, Is It Gonna Retrace Today?

The EUR/USD currency pair found on the bearish track ahead of the 1.09 handle, due to all buyers expect the European Central Bank to choose President Lagarde’s speech for the next push lower.

As of writing, in this currency pair, the selling interest continues to unabated due to a continuous strong U.S. Dollar against its main competitors, as repeated /united States and China trade friction linked with Brexit matter continues to increase the safe-haven of the buck. 

Moreover, the USD Index increased on Monday’s rally and hit the highest level since 2017 at 99.33, presently trading at few points below.

Whereas, the EUR currency still under pressure due to the worsening Eurozone economic situation, particularly due to the final Euro area Manufacturing PMIs released that the Eurozone’s manufacturing slowdown extended for a 7th month in August.

Besides this, the United States and China trade war and intensifying Brexit uncertainty flashing to the Euro area growth concerns and increased appeals for an aggressive rate cut by the European Central Bank in the meeting which is due to next week. 

Therefore, according to the Europan Central Bank watch, markets are now pricing in a 60% chance a twenty-bps September rate cut versus ten-basis points easing previously expected.

All focus continues to stay on the US ISM Manufacturing data and trade progress during the day, while on the other side, all eyes will keep on Lagarde’s speech.

EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0954    1.0989

1.0939    1.1008

1.0904    1.1043

Pivot Point 1.0974

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD extends its monsoon as its trades near to the lowest since May 2017 while flashing 1.0965 during Tuesday’s Asian session. The EUR/USD bearish trend remains powerful as it has broken the strong support level of 1.1075.

The support-turned-resistance line developed since late-May 2019, at 1.0988, displays an immediate upside wall to watch ahead of August 01 low of 1.1027 and 10-day simple moving average (DMA) level of 1.1056.

On the lower side, the next potential target can 1.0885.

AUD/USD – RBA Leaves The Cash Rate Steady at 1% 

Today, the AUD/USD pair slipped out of the sideways bracket and was travelling south after scoring the daily opening near 0.6724 level.

The Reserve Bank has held its cash rate on steady, despite evidence the economy stalled distinctly over the June quarter.

Key points:

  • The RBA held the cash rate at a historic low of 1%, despite easing direction on GDP expansion in the near term.
  • The dollar endured mostly unchanged, as the hold was broadly expected by the market.
  • RBA governor Philip Lowe has replaced references to “soft” housing markets with reference to a “turnaround in established markets.”

The RBA board voted to keep its cosmetic dry after making continuous cuts in June and July to take the cost of borrowing to a historic low of 1 per cent.

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI August month, 50.4 against 49.8 forecasts, opposing the weekend report of official manufacturing figure 49.5 versus 49.7 expected, Australian buyers shrug off recent uncertainty.

AUD/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

0.6708     0.673

0.6698     0.6742

0.6676      0.6763

Pivot Point 0.672

AUD/USD – Daily Forecast

On the trade front, the AUD/USD is facing solid support around 0.6700. Aussie has been forming long Doji candles over this level, suggesting chances of a bullish reversal. Immediate resistance stays at 0.6750 and 0.6785. While the EMA is signalling a bearish bias. I will be staying bullish above 0.6710 and bearish below 0.6755 today. 

All the best!

Image Gallery (1)


Daily FX Analysis, Sep 02 – Quick Outlook of BTC/USD, AUD/USD and Gold! 


Daily FX Analysis, Sep 04 – Top Trade Setups In Forex – BOC In Highlights! 


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