On Friday, the U.S. dollar climbed to a three-week peak versus the basket of six major currencies. Most of the bullish trend was boosted by tightness in the money markets of the United States. Whereas traders came out of their positions in Euro due to intensified political tightness, and a depressing economic outlook pondered on the Sterling and Euro.
Consequently, the dollar index, which gauges the buck’s power against other currencies, traded bullish adding 0.16% at 99.2, its highest since Sept 3. Get ready for
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BTC/USD – Daily Analysis
The leading cryptocurrency continues it’s bearish momentum following much inkling of a critical move. Bitcoin has undoubtedly taken a direction for the short-term dumping within the asymmetrical triangle support. Prevailing market price rests on $8,000 support but looks poised to drop further.
Bitcoin is now in a new trading range of 8200 – 7720. The 50 periods exponential moving average on the 4-hour chart is signaling selling trend in the BTC/USD.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trading at 77, entering in the bullish zone, suggesting odds of the buying trend in the BTC/USD.
The BTC/USD is now having a current trading range of 8200 – 7720. The bearish breakout of 7700 can extend bearish rally until 7425.
BTC/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 8,093.37
BTC/USD – Daily Forecast
The BTC/USD continues to trade lower amid a stronger dollar. The pair is trading at 7,980 after testing the support of around 7,790. Bitcoin recently violated the support level of 8,250, and now the same level is working as a resistance. Overall sentiment for the BTC/USD remains bearish. Therefore, the violation of 7,790 support can trigger more sell-off until 7,460.
The market sentiment may change from next week as the BTC/USD seems to close a Doji candle on daily timeframe today, which has a potential to drive bullish retracement probably until 8,500 and 8700 area in the coming week.
EUR/USD – German Business Climate Improves
The EUR/USD opened at 1.09415 and placed a high of 1.09673. It is currently moving at 1.09284. On Thursday strong USD made EUR/USD weaker and on Thursday the drop of pair prices, despite robust EUR Economic data was likely to be followed by the yesterday’s trend.
However, the decline was caused by the resignation of Sabine Lautenschlaeger on late Wednesday. She resigned from the executive board of European Central Bank in the act of protest, against the decision of reviving quantitative easing and loose monetary policy by ECB’s President Mario Draghi.
The news caused Euro to hit a new low for this year against the dollar and made EUR/USD to move down further.
On 11:00 GMT, The German GfK Consumer Climate came as 9.9 against expected 9.7 was in favor of Euro. On 13:00 GMT, the M3 Money Supply of Europe the same as 5.7% against 5.1% expected was also in favor of Euro. The Private Loans showed 3.4% figure the same as expected.
On 17;30 GMT the U.S. Final GDP, came as expected 2.0% along with GDP Price index as 2.4%. The U.S. Goods Trade Balance -72.8B came greater than anticipated -73.3B. U.S. Unemployment Claims 213K also came slightly more than expected 210K.
The only data which was not in favor of USD was the prelim Wholesale Inventories which came as 0.4% as compared to 0.1%. At 19:00 GMT, the U.S. Pending Home Sales came as 1.6% was in favor of U.S. Dollar. Investors almost ignored the U.S. data released on Thursday because all came as expected.
EUR/USD pair rose at the beginning, but it was pulled back afterward. The EUR/USD moved high because of active EUR data release on Thursday, but when American data came on board, it started to fall again.
EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 1.0931
EUR/USD – Daily Forecast
The single currency Euro has violated the double bottom support level of 1.0945 and managed to close the daily candle below this level. It’s suggesting further sell-off looming around 1.0945 area. Continuation of selling may lead the EUR/USD towards 1.0850 today.
GBP/USD – CBI Realized Sales Ahead
On Thursday, GBP/USD was opened at 1.23504 and is currently moving at 1.23243 after placing a high of 1.23800 and low of 1.23029.
GBP/USD showed mixed movement today as it has been moving in up and down throughout the day. On Wednesday, the pair dropped sharply due to U.S. Dollar strength.
However, on Thursday the GBP/USD toned-down its losses due to the votes given by M.P.s against granting a mini-recess for Conservative Party Conference. However, the economic reports issued by the U.S. with expected results made it difficult for GBP/USD to create an upward trend.
The release of whistleblower allegation on President Trump on Thursday also made U.S. Dollar weak and moved from GBP/USD up a little.
The downward movement of GBP/USD was mainly due to the rise of political anxiety in the U.K. Parliament. The resisting calls for the resignation of U.K.’s President, Boris Johnson, gave the potential for early general elections and put pressure on Sterling. The Pound is likely to remain under pressure until there are hopes for political certainty.
On Friday, the U.K. consumer Confidence index is due to release, in case of failure to impress the market, we may see Sterling trading further bearish.
Under the ongoing Brexit uncertainty, the GBP/USD will remain biased to the downward trend. Even if the Consumer Confidence came positive, any political development could easily overshadow its effect due to the sensitivity of Sterling towards the events of Parliament.
However, on the other hand, on 17;30 GMT the U.S. Final GDP, came as expected 2.0% along with GDP Price index as 2.4%. The U.S. Goods Trade Balance -72.8B came higher than expected -73.3B. U.S. Unemployment Claims 213K also came slightly more than expected 210K. The only data which was not in favor of USD was the prelim Wholesale Inventories which came as 0.4% as compared to 0.1%. At 19:00 GMT, the U.S. Pending Home Sales came as 1.6% was in favor of U.S. Dollar. Investors almost ignored the U.S. data released on Thursday because all came as expected.
The pair is showing signs of further downward trend because of persistent lack of development towards a Brexit deal settlement between E.U. & U.K. with a little over month time left for its Deadline.
GBP/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 1.2336
GBP/USD – Daily Forecast
The GBP/USD has completed 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2340, and currently, it’s holding below this level. Typically such scenario should lead the Cable further lower towards 1.2270, the 50% Fibo level. Today 1.2336 is a stable level, and below this, the GBP/USD may trade bearish, and it may turn bullish above 1.2340.
All the best for today.