The greenback was little changed versus the basket of currencies on Monday as traders expected the U.S.-China trade discussions following in the week for evidence to the state of the extended trade war between Washington and Beijing, even as outcomes of an agreement seemed low.

Overall, the trader’s appetite for risk was thin on Monday following a Bloomberg story stated that Chinese officials were unwilling to consent to U.S. President Donald Trump’s extensive trade agreement.

On Monday, in response to the criticism of Fed’s Monetary Policy from U.S. President Trump, the Fed Chair Powell highlighted the importance of Independent Central Bank, which also made a fall in the prices of EUR/USD.

Economic Calendar –   US PPI Ahead



 BTC/USD – Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD finished the week lower; in fact, it opened with a dramatic bearish gap on Monday, signaling sharp bearish bias among traders. The bullish reversal came on bullish fundamentals. 

The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) has begun an Oct 13 deadline for signing a bitcoin-based exchange-traded stock from Bitwise Investments, a movement that could indicate a significant breakthrough in bitcoin’s long-term growth story. 

The leading cryptocurrency has been volatile this year, dropping by more than 20% in one week in late September to its softest level since July amid increasing uncertainty and ambiguity. Bitcoin placed its 2019 peak of over $11,000 in June, as per the cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp.

BTC/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support   Resistance 

7,671.27    8,489.78

7,281.7      8,918.72

6,463.19   9,737.23

Pivot Point 8,100.21

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD has covered the bearish gap, which was triggered on Monday. The 7700 area extended support to the leading cryptocurrency. On the hourly timeframe, the BTC/USD has also violated the bearish trendline like resistance at 8140 levels. With this, the BTC/USD gets an open room for further buying until 8,400. On the way, the 8,330 may work a slight hurdle today.


EUR/USD – Ascending Triangle Pattern

A day before, the EUR/USD was opened with 1.09790 and is currently moving at 1.09713. At 11:00 GMT, the German Factory Orders came as -0.6% against -0.4% expectations and weighed on Euro. At 13:30 GMT, the Sentix Investor Confidence from Europe was released as -16.8 against -12.9 expectations and weighed further on the single currency.

Pair was already under pressure from the previous week’s positive Job data from the USA, which reduced the fears of economic slowdown and tariffs imposed on E.U. goods from the USA. Moreover, on Monday, the weak economic data release from Europe added to the downward movement of EUR/USD. 

The fall in German Industrial Orders in the previous month enhanced the concerns about emerging Recession in the German Economy. The Investor’s confidence in eurozone showed a decline due to the prevailing recession fears and the central bank’s failed measures to handle this fear.

Besides these macroeconomic data, investors had eyes on US-China Trade Talks, which are due this week on 10-11 Oct. According to Bloomberg, the Chinese officials are hesitant to agree to the trade deal pursued by Trump. 

German 10-Year Bond Yield fell with 1.1 basis point to -0.598%. There was a slight decline in eurozone government bond yields in response to concerns about US-China trade talks that could fail. The EUR/USD has placed a low of 1.09618 on the starting day of the week.

On Monday, in response to the criticism of Fed’s Monetary Policy from U.S. President Trump, The Fed Chair Powell highlighted the importance of Independent Central Bank, which also made a fall in the prices of EUR/USD.

EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0956 1.0994

1.0939 1.1017

1.0901 1.1056

Pivot Point 1.0978

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD has formed an ascending triangle pattern which is supporting the major currency pair at 1.0970 along with resistance at 1.0995. Almost it’s a range of 25 pips, and the breakout of this range may help us predict which way traders are likely to take the pair. Typically, the ascending triangle pattern breaks on the upper side, and if that happens, the EUR/USD may lead towards 1.1030 today.


GBP/USD – Services PMI Weights

Yesterday, the GBP/USD was opened at 1.23012 and is currently trading at 1.22953. At 12:30 GMT, the House Price Index (HPI) from the Halifax Bank of Scotland was released as -0.4% against 0.4% expected. Moreover, at 15:40 GMT, the retail sales monitor from British Retail Consortium came as -1.7% against -0.8% expected.

With the Brexit Deadline ahead and no deal settlement yet, Sterling remained under pressure. The French President, Emmanuel Macron, said that the European Union would decide at the end of the week about the possibility of Brexit deal. He said that negotiations should continue in the coming days in order to conclude the likelihood of an agreement that respects the E.U. Principals by the end of the week.

Meanwhile, U.K. Prime Minister, Boris Johnson said that the bloc should not be tempted on thoughts that Brexit would delay. This pessimism has caused the Sterling to fall against U.S. Dollars at the starting session of the week.

With deputy-level talks scheduled on Monday & Tuesday and the Top-level talks on Thursday & Friday of this week regarding the US-China Trade War, the focus is entirely upon them. The chances of a deal settlement between the U.S. & China are meager because of the mixed comments from both sides.

However, the weak economic data from Britain and the strong U.S. Dollar caused the GBP/USD movement further downward to place a low of 1.22868 on Monday.

GBP/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2271 1.2319

1.2253 1.2351

1.2205 1.24

Pivot Point 1.2302


GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBPUSD continues to trade sideways above within the suggested range of 1.2340 – 1.2290. The bullish trend line on the 4-hour chart is extending support at 1.2290. Violation of this support can extend the GBP/USD selloff until 1.2220. Conversely, the bounce off above 1.2290 can lead the Cable towards 1.2340 and 1.2385.

All the best for today. 


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