Daily F.X. Analysis, Oct 02 – Top Trade Setups In Forex - US ADP Nonfarm Payroll Eyed!
By Eaglefx On October 02, 2019 in Daily Market Analysis
A day before, the U.S. dollar fell sharply versus most major currencies, after falling from a two-year peak during data revealed the U.S. manufacturing activity shrank at the quickest velocity in more than a decade in September.
The weak manufacturing survey from the United States, along with other countries around the world gave a boost to the current expectations of further interest rate cuts from central banks.
On the other hand, U.S. Dollars on Tuesday fell across the board on the release of weak manufacturing PMI from the Institute of Supply Management in the United States. The data showed that PMI has dropped to 47.8 points against 49.1 expectations.
Economic Calendar - ADP Nonfarm Payroll Eyed
BTC/USD - Daily Analysis
Bitcoin price is consolidating mostly in a red zone, losing around 0.50% in the second half of the trading session. The BTC/USD price is gaining significant support at $7500, barring a free-fall. Price action has created a bearish flag formation on the daily chart, directed to a possible breakout south.
On the smaller timeframe, the Bitcoin price action remained slightly bearish below 38.2% Fibonacci trading level. The 50 periods EMA is also extending resistance at the same level.
On the other hand, the bearish breakout below $8,000 can extend sell0-off until $7,900. The relative strength index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone and may drive the bearish trend below 8100 today.
BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
7,727.14 8,447.94
7,372.57 8,814.17
6,651.77 9,534.97
Pivot Point 8,093.37
BTC/USD – Daily Forecast
As mentioned in the previous forecast, the BTC/USD managed to hold below an immediate resistance level of 8580. The pair has formed an inside up candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, which is signaling odds of bullish reversal in the BTC/USD.
Today, the BTC/USD may trade bearish below 8,500 until 8,000 level. While bullish bias may be seen above 8,500 breakouts as it can lead bitcoin towards 8,750 levels.
EUR/USD – German Business Climate Improves
EUR/USD opened on Tuesday with 1.08991 and has placed a high of 1.09427 until now. During the trading session on Tuesday, Euro went back and forth, giving confusion to traders about a specific trend. However, after the release of the US PMI Index, it showed a sharp rise in the prices of EUR/USD.
From the European side, the following economic data were released on Tuesday. At 12:15 GMT, the Spanish Manufacturing PMI came as 47.7 against 48.2 expected. The Italian Manufacturing PMI at 12:45 GMT, came as 47.8 against 48.2 expected. On 12:50 GMT, the French Final
Manufacturing PMI came as 50.1 against 50.3.
The German Final Manufacturing PMI came as 41.7 against 41.4 expected. At 12:55 GMT. Moreover, at 13:00 GMT, the final Manufacturing PMI of Europe came as 45.7 against 45.6 expected.
The CPI Flash Estimate from Europe at 14:00 GMT, dropped to 0.9% against 1.0% expected.
On the other hand, US Dollars on Tuesday fell across the board on the release of weak manufacturing PMI from the Institute of Supply Management in the United States. The data showed that PMI has dropped to 47.8 points against 49.1 expectations.
The weak PMI raised the possibility of the US recession in the market and dropped the prices of US Dollars immediately. Drop-in Dollar gave a push to EUR/USD pair and made a Bullish trend for it.
EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.0895 1.0954
1.0872 1.099
1.0814 1.1049
Pivot Point 1.0931
EUR/USD – Daily Forecast
The EUR/USD is in the overbought zone on the smaller timeframe, which is extending it an intraday resistance at 1.0940. Below this, we may see a slight sell-off until 1.0919 and 1.0907. On the upper side, a breakout of 1.0940 can extend buying until 1.0964.
GBP/USD - CBI Realized Sales Ahead
GBP/USD was opened on Tuesday at 1.22865 and has placed a high of 1.23387 until now.
On Tuesday, Boris Johnson, UK Prime Minister, said that they were prepared to be flexible to solve the Irish backstop problem. Later that day, Bloomberg reported that the European Union was ready to consider a time limit on Irish Backstop.
According to the report, if the United Kingdom accepts an Irish-only Backstop only then a time limit would be offered on a backstop. It means that Northern Ireland would remain in the customs unions of the European Union while the rest of the UK including England, Scotland and Wales could leave the economic bloc. This measure would prevent a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.
European Union had offered the Ireland-only backstop before, but the Northern Ireland unionist party rejected it. The report also stated that the Northern Ireland Assembly could have a say in leaving the Brexit backstop by the European Union. After this news, the Pound rose across the board and made the prices of GBP/USD to move upward.
Another reason behind the upward movement of GBP/USD was the weak Manufacturing PMI release from the United States. The data showed that PMI has dropped to 47.8 points against 49.1 expectations. Also, the weak PMI made Dollar prices to fell on Tuesday amid the risks of the US falling in a recession.
When the Manufacturing PMI from all over the world has shown disappointing results, the release of Manufacturing PMI from the United Kingdom at 13:30 GMT, was the only one that came in favor of its currency. The report came as 48.3 against 47.0 and made the GBP/USD move upward further. At 11:00 GMT, the Nationwide HPI from the United Kingdom came as -0.2 against 0.1% expected on Tuesday.
GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2295 1.2368
1.2263 1.2409
1.2189 1.2482
Pivot Point 1.2336
GBP/USD – Daily Forecast
The GBP/USD is facing stiff resistance at 1.2330 level, which is extended by the double top and bearish trendline resistance. The pair has also crossed below the 50 periods EMA on the 4-hour chart, which is suggesting odds of a bearish reversal in the GBP/USD. On the lower side, the immediate target is likely to be 1.2230, whereas the bullish breakout can lead the cable towards 1.2370. The bearish bias remains stronger today.
All the best for today.