Daily F.X. Analysis, May 11 – Stronger Dollar Sentiment Amid Positive NFP! 

During the last week on Friday, the data from the U.S. showed the unemployment rate climbed to 14.7% from the expected 16% and again supported the U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. also increased to 4.7% from expected0.5% and supported the dollar.

On the news front, the eyes will remain on the European industrial production figures, but the event is a medium impact, and it may not drive sharp selling or buying in the market today.

Economic Calendar     

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD prices have declined towards the $8,000 support mark after being discarded from the psychological $10,000 resistance mark during the weekend. Looking forward to this week, the BTCUSD sellers seem dominant, and they may target the $6,500 mark if they can drive a violation of BTC price below the $8,000 support zone this week. 

The BTCUSD is particularly bullish while trading over the $8,700 mark, key resistance is located at the $9,400 and the $10,000 marks. If the BTCUSD pair trades beneath the $8,700, sellers may examine the $8,000 and $7,000 support marks.

At the moment, the volatility in the leading cryptocurrency is notably high. Nevertheless, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin's downside is maintained by the assembly created by the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the 200-day SMA. Today, a bearish breakout of 8,500 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 8,230. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

8,054       9,485

7,376      10,239

6,622     10,917

Pivot Point 8,808

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The BTC/USD opened with a vast gap, falling sharply below 10K psychological resistance level to 8,500 support zone. Currently, the leading crypto pair is gaining support at this level and has closed a Doji candle above the 8,500 level. 

Today, a bearish breakout of 8,500 level may extend selling bias until the next support level of 8,230. However, if Bitcoin continues to close candles above the 8,500 level, we may see bullish correction until the 9,200 level.

EUR/USD – Sideways Trading Continues

The EUR/USD pair was closed at 1.08383 after placing a high of 1.08755 and a low of 1.08149. Overall the movement of the EUR/USD pair was bullish on that day. On Friday EUR/USD pair first added in the Thursday's high of 1.0766 to 1.0875 and then pulled back to 1.081. The EUR/USD pair trimmed losses on Friday amid the risk-on market sentiment because of easing down of lockdowns in the world's major economies. It derived the hopes of faster than expected economic recovery and increased optimism around the world.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance for the month of March was released and came in as 12.8 against the expectations of 19.0B and weighed on EUR.

Moreover, the U.S. jobs lost by 20.5M in April failed to have a major impact on the EUR/USD pair on Friday and left the pair moved in a neutral stance. The NFP data from the United States on Friday showed that 20.5M people lost their jobs in April, where the expected number was 22M. The number was huge, but as it fell under the expected value, the impact on the U.S. dollar was positive.

Further data from the U.S. showed the unemployment rate climbed to 14.7% from the expected 16% and again supported the U.S. dollar. The Average Hourly Earnings from the U.S. also increased to 4.7% from an expected 0.5% and supported the dollar.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.0812      1.0874

1.0782      1.0906

1.0750      1.0935

Pivot Point: 1.0844

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast 

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0830, having violated the intraday pivot point resistance level of 1.0812. A bearish breakout of 1.0812 level can lead the EUR/USD prices towards 1.07630, which marks 78.6% Fibonacci level. Below this, the next support stays around 1.0725. On the higher side, resistance holds around 1.0864. The RSI is holding below 50, which is keeping the EUR/USD in a bearish mode while the 50 EMA is also suggesting odds of selling trend in the EUR/USD. Consider staying bearish below 1.0808 today. 

GBP/USD - EMA Crossover 

The GBP/USD pair was closed at 1.24055 after placing a high of 1.24670 and a low of 1.2347. Overall the movement of GBP/USD remained bullish throughout the day. On Thursday, Sterling dropped to the low of 1.2266 and gathered pace on Friday with a jump above 1.2400 level. The pair was favored by the risk-on market sentiment and placed a high of 1.24670 at the ending day of the week.

The risk-on market sentiment emerged after the easing of lockdown from various countries across the globe. It was also supported by the easing down of restrictions in the world's biggest economy, which raised the hopes for a global economic recovery that has been caused by the COVID-19. 

On the data front, at 4:01 GMT, the GFK Consumer Confidence from the United Kingdom was released for April, which showed that the consumer's confidence over the U.K.'s economic conditions fell less than the expectations. The expected fall in the consumer confidence was -37, which in actual was recorded as -33 on Friday and helped GBP to gain traction.

The better than expected fall in consumer confidence during April made GBP stronger against the U.S. dollar in earlier Asian sessions; hence, the pair GBP/USD moved in a bullish trend.

On the other hand, at the U.S. front, the NFP data showed that over 20.5M jobs were lost during the month of April against the expected fall of 22M. Although the number of lost jobs was huge, it fell under the forecasted value, so it supported the U.S. dollar. The gains earned in early sessions by GBP/USD were somewhat lost after the U.S. data release on the back of U.S. dollar strength amid better than expected data.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2349 1.2468

1.2291 1.2527

1.2231 1.2586

Pivot Point: 1.2409

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

On Monday, the GBP/USD has come out of the selling zone as it crossed over 50 EMA resistance at 1.2400. The GBP/USD prices are holding above pivot point level of 1.2409, which is suggesting odds of bullish trend continued until the next resistance level of 1.2485. In case, the Cable violate 1.2485 level, we may see GBP/USD prices heading towards 1.2550 and 1.2600. The RSI and 50 EMA are suggesting the chances of a bullish bias today. On the lower side, the GBP/USD prices are likely to find support at around 1.2310 and 1.2204. Let's look for selling trades below 1.2400 and buying above the same level today. 

Good luck!