Daily F.X. Analysis, March 31 – Eurozone's Inflation Report In Focus!
By Eaglefx On March 31, 2020 in Daily Market Analysis
On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index rebounded 0.7% on the day to 99.04, halting a six-day losing streak. Later today, eyes will be on the European Commission will post March CPI (+0.6% on-year expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report the March jobless rate (5.1% expected). France's INSEE will release March CPI (+1.0% on-year expected). The U.K. Office for National Statistics will post final readings of 4Q GDP (+1.1% on-year expected).
Economic Calendar
BTC/USD - Daily Analysis
The leading cryptocurrency opens lower on Tuesday to drop from 6,700 level to trade at 6,400 zones. The BTC/USD has plunged for the second time during the previous week, which has to lead its prices below $6,000 psychological level. On Tuesday, the BTC/USD crossed over $6,000 mark as traders seem to buy cheaper Bitcoin to sell it later at higher prices.
Currently, the Bitcoin is trading at $6,417 has it managed to crossover a horizontal resistance level of 6,000 mark on Monday, where the violation of this level could send the Bitcoin prices towards $5,700 and $5,350. Below this, traders will look to $4,446, where the price previously created a double bottom.
It looks like most of the investors disregard Bitcoin's weekend price action as trading volume reduces through this time. On Tuesday, the prices are gaining support and are likely to drive some bullish momentum in the market.
BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
6,174 6,747
5,801 6,946
5,228 7,519
Pivot Point 6,374
BTC/USD – Daily Forecast
On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency pair continues to trade higher to test the support become a resistance level of 6,530 area. Closing of candles below this level are likely to drive selling bias in the Bitcoin, and its prices can drop to 6,235 area. Violation of this level can lead to Bitcoin prices further lower until the next support level of 5,975. Conversely, the bullish breakout of the 6,530 level can break Bitcoin prices higher towards 6,880 level. Overall, the trend is likely to stay bearish below 6,880 level.
EUR/USD – Pair Droopd Below 1.10 Level Amid Fresh Greenback Recovery
During the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 1.10 level, mainly due to the greenbacks recovery trend. The EUR/USD currency pair is losing its ground for the consecutive session on the day ahead of the data. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0996 and consolidates in the range between 1.0991 - 1.1055.
Earlier in the Asian session, month/quarter-end flows and some stress return around the dollar funding, which have been supporting the recovery in the buck and pushed the DXY to fresh 2-day highs near 99.60, where it runs out of steam. Eventually, it weighs on the EUR/USD currency pair.
At the data front, German Import Prices declined 0.9% MoM during February and 2.0% over the last 12-months, all ahead of the release of the more relevant labor market report later in the session.
European Commission will post March CPI (+0.6% on-year expected). The German Federal Statistical Office will report the March jobless rate (5.1% expected). However, the EUR/USD pair dropped from 1.1495 to 1.0636 in the 14 days to March 23 before recovering some poise with a move above 1.10. At press time, the spot is trading mostly unchanged on the month below 1.10.
EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.1002 1.1099
1.0958 1.1151
1.0862 1.1247
Pivot Point 1.1054
EUR/USD – Daily Forecast
The EUR/USD tested the forecasted support level of 1.0975, and now it's closing neutral candles above the same support level. On the 4 hour chart, the EUR/USD has formed an upward trendline, which is supporting the EUR/USD prices around 1.0975 level, and these may drive some buying until 1.1060 and 1.1145. On the other hand, a bearish breakout of 1.0965 can leads the EUR/USD prices lower towards 1.0884.
GBP/USD - EU-UK Tussle Regarding Brexit
The GBP/USD currency pair flashing red and dropped below the 1.2350 level, mainly due to the fresh concerns regarding Brexit deadlines. As well as, the decreasing coronavirus cases fresh report failed to give any significant support to GBP currency. While the downbeat business sentiment is weighing on the currency pair. The GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.2333 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2255 - 1.2420.
As per the latest report that the surveys conducted by the market research firm GfK and Lloyds Bank, suggesting a decline in the U.K.'s consumer and business confidence.
Downbeat sentiment drives the indices, but the fresh coronavirus report has also revived the struggle between the European Union and the United Kingdom regarding the December 31, 2020 deadline, after the political group of European Union pushed the U.K. to do some responsible work and extend the Brexit transition period as well.
The United Kingdom Boris johnson representative stated that the Brexit transition period would end on December 31, 2020, because this is included in the United Kingdom law. The United Kingdom politicians also indicated that there are fewer chances of further lockdown measures while singling continued struggles against the coronavirus during the twelve weeks.
The GBP currency took some support from the recent report of coronavirus that suggested a drop in cases from March 27 figures of 2,900 to 2,400 new facts on March 29, but the Guardian raises doubts on it.
GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels
Support Resistance
1.2319 1.2444
1.2256 1.2505
1.2131 1.263
Pivot Point 1.238
GBP/USD – Daily Forecast
The GBP/USD soared to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish on Monday, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling.
At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level.
The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!