Daily F.X. Analysis, March 30 – Risk Sentiment Remains Mixed - COVID19 In Play!  

The U.S. dollar closed a week with a bearish bias, and the safe-haven yen rose on Monday, as coronavirus lockdowns tightened across the world. Traders braced for an extended interval of uncertainty.

The U.S. dollar soared versus its peer currencies, especially against the Sterling, Euro, Kiwi, and the Aussie. Sterling was last 0.7% softer at $1.2371; the Aussie slipped by nearly the same margin at $0.6134 while the euro was 0.5% weaker at $1.1082. Let's look at the fundamental and technical outlook of the market.  

Economic Calendar   

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD has plunged for the second time during the previous week, which has to lead its prices below $6,000 psychological level. Today's pullback beneath the $6,000 mark seems to be the weekly and monthly close approach, and, probably, investors could also influence concerns that traditional financial markets such as forex and stock may start to correct itself on Monday, especially during the U.S. opening bell.

Currently, the Bitcoin is trading at $6,217 has it managed to crossover a horizontal resistance level of 6,000 mark during the Asian session. Beneath $5,700, $5,350 is the following area of support, and under this level, investors will look to $4,446, where the price previously created a double bottom.

It looks like most of the investors disregard Bitcoin's weekend price action as trading volume reduces through this time. On Monday, the prices are gaining support and are likely to drive some bullish momentum in the market. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

5,763       6,150

5,634      6,408

5,376      6,537

Pivot Point 6,021

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

The leading cryptocurrency opens lower on Monday to drop from 6,700 level to trade at 5,700. On the hourly chart, the BTC/USD has formed triple bottom support at 5,700 level. Closing of candles above this level can extend buying until 6,155. Above this, the next target is likely to be found around 6,392.

EUR/USD –   Risk Sentiment Getting Worse After Trump's Decision 

The EUR/USD is flashing red and dropped to the 1.1070 from the high level of 1.1145, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment. The U.S. equity index fell as the United States President Donald Trump extended lockdowns, travel restrictions, and social distancing till April to control the intensifying spread of coronavirus. 

At the moment, the EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1076 and consolidates in the range between the 1.1069 - 1.1144. However, the decision of Trump to extends the lockdown is showing more possibilities of slowdown, which boosts the U.S. dollar and pushing the pair lower.

At the USD front, the U.S. dollar is getting boost once again from the risk-off tone in the Asian stocks and the U.S. equity index futures. Despite China's rate cut, the investors are cautious about placing any position due to the worsening situation in the United States. The United States President Donald Trump's declaration to extend social distancing throughout April, which fueling the fears of a recession.

The economic fallout in the West has seemed to start, and another sell-off in the stock markets could be seen soon. As in result, the U.S. treasuries (and the greenback) could continue to gets support as a safe-haven demand in the near-term. 

However, the bearish tone in the currency pair may further increase if there is a delay in the unified fiscal response from the European Union. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair can face bearish pressure on Monday, until the market releases any further supported event. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.101        1.1205

1.0885    1.1274

1.069      1.1469

Pivot Point 1.1079

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD is also trading with bearish bias after surging to the 1.1150 area. It seems to have entered the overbought zone as the pair has already completed 50% Fibo retracements on the daily timeframe at 1.1075. 

Above this, the next resistance can be found around 1.1165 level, which marks the 61.8% Fibo area. On Monday, the 1.1065 area is a crucial level, and it may keep the pair bullish above or bearish below this level. On the lower side, the next support can prevail around 1.0975.

GBP/USD -  Coronavirus Fears & Brexit Uncertainty

During the early Asian session, the GBP/USD is found on the bearish track and dropped below the 1.2400 level, mainly due to the risk-off market sentiment. Most of the selling triggered in the wake of intensifying coronavirus fear in the U.K. The fresh recovery in the U.S. dollar also keeps the pair lower. 

Right now, the GBP/USD is trading at 1.2395 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2361 - 1.246. While considering the Economics and Business Research (CEBR) report, the Guardian said that the United Kingdom's economic output might drop by 15% in the 2nd-quarter of the year. 

Furthermore, the report also indicates a rise in the death losses to 1,228 and 19,522 as positive cases, including the national leader. Earlier, the global rating agency Fitch deceased the U.K.'s credit rating from A.A. to AAA- with a negative outlook, which is adding bearish pressure on Sterling.

According to a U.K. Telegraph report, access to intensive care for coronavirus patients is now limited to those reasonably certain to survive, as per the sources from the National Health Services (NHS) London Trust. The department head at Imperial College Healthcare announced on Sunday that minimal patients are being selected for ventilator treatment because so many severe cases require to stay a couple of weeks on the ventilator.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2234     1.2576

1.2019     1.2701

1.1678     1.3042

Pivot Point 1.236

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD soared on Friday to trade at 1.2400 level, but it manages to trade bearish on Monday, falling to 1.2370 level. On Monday, the GBP/USD's pivot point support stays around 1.2375 level, which also marks the 50% Fibonacci support level for the Sterling. 

At the moment, the GBP/USD is holding below a strong resistance level of 1.2513 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the Sterling pair is likely to find support at 1.2350 violation of which can open further room for selling until 1.2305 and 1.2090, which marks 38.2% Fibo level. 

The leading indicators, such as RSI and Stochastics, are holding in the overbought zone, which supports the odds of selling bias or retracement in the GBP/USD pair. The GBP/USD pair may trade in selling below 1.2360 and buying above the same level today. Good luck!