Daily F.X. Analysis, February 25 – C.B. Consumer Confidence In Highlights! 

On the forex front, the U.S. Dollar Index was little changed at 99.29, compared with 99.26 in the prior session. The German Federal Statistical Office will post the final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.3% on-year expected and previously estimated).

France's INSEE will report February indicators on business confidence (103 expected) and manufacturing confidence (99 expected).

In the U.S., the Conference Board will publish February Consumer Confidence Index (132.1 expected). S.P./Case-Shiller will report the 20-City Composite Home Price Index for December (+0.4% on month expected), the FHFA will release November House Price Index (+0.4% on month expected), and the Richmond Federal Reserve will release its Manufacturing Index for February (10 expected).

Economic Calendar  

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis 

The BTC/USD price remained range-bound during the day; however, it ultimately slipped down 3.28% to $9,473 through the U.S. evening hours. Many BTC/USD supporters assume that the leading asset is negatively correlated to traditional markets and have often proposed that traders will refer to it as a hedge in case of volatility in the markets, but that was not the situation today.

Bitcoin fought to stay over $9,750 and dipped towards the $9,500 support versus the Greenback. BTC price could drop if it sinks beneath the critical $9,500 support.  

A solid support is building on the downside around the $9,500 region.

There is a crucial bearish trend line setting with resistance around $9,640 on the hourly timeframe of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).

The pair could make either soar over $9,680, or it might sink heavily beneath the $9,500 support.

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support     Resistance 

9,449.46      9,802.61

9,292.61      9,998.91

8,939.46   10,352.06

Pivot Point 9,645.76

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

On Tuesday, the BTC/USD is trading at 9,576 level, having immediate support around 9,430 level. The 50 periods EMA is likely to extend resistance around 9,875. 

On the lower side, the BTC/USD is likely to face support around 9,310 level. Overall, the pair is forming a higher low and higher high pattern, which typically drives bullish trends in the market. Today 9,300/9,280 remains the crucial trading levels for the Bitcoin.

EUR/USD – German Final GDP q/q

The EUR/USD edged up 0.1% to 1.0853. The German IFO Business Climate Index climbed to 96.1 in February (95.3 expected) from 96.0 in January. The German Federal Statistical Office will post the final readings of 4Q GDP (+0.3% on-year expected and previously estimated). 

France's INSEE will report February indicators on business confidence (103 expected) and manufacturing confidence (99 expected). European stocks were also deep in negative territory, as the Stoxx Europe 600 Index plummeted 3.8%. 

Germany's DAX shed 4.0%, France's CAC lost 3.9%%, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was down 3.3%. The Euro is still facing a bearish pressure as Italy said there were 229 cases (7 deaths). Singapore has also got 90 cases.

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bullish around 1.0850 in the wake of profit-taking in the USD. The pair seems to have triggered a bullish retracement as it has already completed 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.08530. Fundamentally, the focus will remain on the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence to drive further movement in the market. 

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0815     1.0882

1.0777     1.091

1.071       1.0977

Pivot Point 1.0844

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

On Tuesday, a continuation of a bullish trend can extend buying until a 38.2% Fibo mark of 1.0901 on the daily timeframe. Fundamentally, the focus will remain on the U.S. C.B. Consumer Confidence to drive further movement in the market. Overall, the pair is likely to stay supported over 1.0820. While additional buying can be seen on a bullish breakout of an immediate resistance mark of 1.08700 level.

GBP/USD - CBI Realized Sales

The GBP/USD dropped 0.4% to 1.2924, but now it's surging higher to trade at 1.2980. One of the logic for the Pound's bullish trend is the relative outperformance of the British economy beyond that of the Eurozone. The United Kingdom is seeing a post-election surge in traders' confidence while the Eurozone market continues to stuck in low gear in part due to the effects of concerns of the coronavirus.

An abnormal shutdown in China - aimed at deriving the spread of the virus - has surely meant that global business will decrease piercingly in the first half of the year 2020. It's bad news for markets such as Germany, which are reliant on both demands for final goods from China, and the provision of intermediate goods for German manufacturing products.

The British Pound begins the fresh week as an underperformer, posting losses versus the U.S. Dollar, which seems to be on the charge owing to a resumed session of nerves amid the coronavirus.

Nevertheless, against the Euro, the Sterling seems comparatively better supported with the traders evaluating the relative influence of the disease on the E.U. as being probably more critical than will be the situation on the U.K. economy.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2892     1.296

1.2855     1.2991

1.2787     1.3059

Pivot Point 1.2923

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

The GBP/USD is trading with a bullish bias above a pivot point 1.2923. Below this mark, the GBP/USD has the possibility of sinking further unto 1.2902, the primary support level. Breakout of this level can prolong the bearish bias till the next support zone of 1.2845. The 50 days EMA is also holding at 1.2900 area, suggesting a bearish trend in the GBP/USD pair. The RSI and Stochastics are trading in an overbought sphere, hiking chances for a sell trade. Let's look for selling positions under 1.2981 today to target 1.2942 and 1.2900. Alternatively, buying can be seen over 1.2980 with a target of 1.3040. 

Good luck!