The global stock market indices and the U.S. dollar seems to be proposing a potential turning point with the stimulus trade. Global stocks have been broadly backed by unique stimulus from central banks and states, but that appears to be missing some of its firepowers, while the constant demand for U.S. Bonds has buoyed the greenback. 

The subsequent significant movement with risk appetite will probably stem from expectations on when key economies resume. Today, the focus will remain on the Japanese unemployment rate and the latest updates from COVID19. 

Economic Calendar     


BTC/USD – Daily Analysis

The BTC/USD price continues to soar week in and week out, as another 9% has been combined to its price since the previous Sunday. Nevertheless, with the block reward halving being presented over two weeks away, and drilling pressure set to grow 5% further.

The BTC/USD prices have abruptly jumped over $7,700, implying the remainder of the weekend, along with the weekly close will produce higher than usual levels of activity. The progress to $7,708 was short-lived but almost set a higher high above Thursday’s dramatic wave to $7,742. 

Currently, the BTCUSD price is trading sideways between $7,600-$7,769 as traders have violated the intraday pivot point level of 7,632 to press the price above $7,600. Bullish seems stronger today. 

BTC/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

7,557        7,776

7,413        7,851

7,338       7,995

Pivot Point 7632

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

During the previous week, the BTC/USD violated the symmetric triangle pattern, which was extending resistance at 7,200 level, and as a result, the Bitcoin bulls gain motivation to drive its prices higher towards 7776 levels. Currently, the BTC/USD prices are holding in a narrow trading range of $7,600-$7,769, and violation of this will help determine the next trend in the BTC/USD pair. A bullish breakout of 7,769 range can lead the Bitcoin prices further higher until 8,000 psychological level while bearish breakout of 7,632 support level can drive selling until 7500 and 7391 levels. Bullish bias seems stronger today. 

EUR/USD – Downward Trendline Resistance

The EUR/USD is trading slightly bullish around 1.0825 level, closing Doji and spinning top candles below the downward trendline, which can be seen at the 4-hour timeframe. However, the single currency Euro is still weaker as a dispute over Europe’s emergency reserve pulled down the single-currency. 

According to news, the European Union granted to build a trillion Euro emergency reserve; however, it left the details for later. According to the European Central Bank (ECB), Italy and Spain faced far harder than Germany by the crisis; traditional animosities have surfaced over a bloc, which allows a cut to output as deep as 15%. 

During the previous week, the preliminary Markit surveys for April activity dropped, and the German manufacturing index slipped sharply to 34.3 while services PMI figures reported declined to 15.9. For the whole Union, the manufacturing PMI finished at 33.6, while the services index rushed to 11.7, all historic lows. Besides, the German GFK Consumer Confidence figures for the month of May slipped to -23.4 versus the previous 2.7, while the ECB declared that it would take some junk-rated securities as collateral to alleviate the impact of potential rating downgrades.

Later today, eyes will be on the COVID19 updates as the Eurozone isn’t expected to deliver any major economic news.

EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0812       1.0829

1.0802      1.0836

1.0795       1.0847

Pivot Point 1.0819

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

Technically, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.0824 level, and it’s likely to face a strong resistance level of 1.08500, which is extended by a downward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. At the same spot, the 50 periods EMA is also extending resistance, while the closing of EUR/USD candles below this level is confirming the chances of selling bias in the EUR/USD pair.

The RSI and Stochastics are in overbought zoner, and sooner or later, it may trigger bearish retracement in the EUR/USD pair. In case of a bullish breakout, we may see EUR/USD prices higher towards 1.0880 level while on the lower side, the EUR/USD pair hold around 1.07280.

GBP/USD – Downard Channel Breakout

The GBP/USD pricers trade higher on Monday after the U.S. durable goods data showed the biggest drop of -14.4% vs. economists forecast of -12% and the previous figure of 1.1%. The worse than expected U.S. figures drove the GBP/USD prices higher as the U.S. dollar started getting weaker on Friday, and it continues to support bullish bias in the Cable on Monday due to lack of high impact economic events. 

On the other hand, Sterling’s bullish trend is being pressured as official figures showed sales volumes fell by 5.1% in March, indicating the hit from the coronavirus shutdown, which ended many businesses in the second half of the month. The fall, which was bigger than a median forecast for a drop of 4.0% in a Reuters poll of economists, came despite a surge in shopping for food.

The Health Secretary Matt Hancock is suggesting the start of the human trials over 300,000 people in a year. Later today, eyes will remain on the Retail sales data from the U.K., which is going to help us determine further trends in the market. As Britain’s lockdown rules limit people’s capacity to live, work, and spend money, as usual, economists assume the country to see its most severe economic recession in more than 300 years. Consequently, the Sterling may face selling pressure over sentiments, but the technical side seems to support the GBP/USD pair. 

GBP/USD – Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2363       1.2371

1.2359       1.2375

1.2356       1.2379

Pivot Point 1.2367

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

On Monday, the technical side of the GBP/USD pair is suggesting a bullish bias as the pair is trying to crossover the 50 EMA resistance level of 1.2390, while it has already violated the triple top resistance level of 1.2367 level. Bullish trend continuation can lead the GBP/USD prices further higher until 1.2450 and 1.2500 level while the intraday pivot point support holds around 1.2367 level. Closing of candle below this level may drive selling bias until 1.2245 level. 

The RSI and Stochastics are holding over 80, supporting bullish bias in the GBP/USD pair. Today, let’s look for buying over 1.2367 and selling below the same level today.

Good luck! 

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