Daily F.X. Analysis, April 21 – Brace for German ZEW Economic Sentiment! 

On Tuesday, the U.S. dollar resumed its mounting against currencies of U.S. oil yielders, as traders continued to be nervous following a historic fall in U.S. crude futures to beneath zero and shied away from risk even as the benchmark jumped back. Later in the day, eyes will be on the Eurozone Economic Sentiment figures, which will help drive movement in the Euro currency pair.  

Economic Calendar     

BTC/USD - Daily Analysis

The Bitcoin traded with a bearish bias to trade at 6,861 area after having violated the immediate support level of 7,000 level. Americans are now spending part of their $2,000 stimulus plan in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 

The BTC/USD price slips from the previous week's high near $7,314, examining support at $6,750, although recovery is initiated, targeting $7,000. The BTC/USD price grew marginally towards the end of last week. The bullish force seemed to have been a technical breakout backed by revived enthusiasm among traders due to several factors, including the block reward halving competition coming up in May and the incentive plan that American people are receiving from the government. 

The stimulus plan is meant to support the residents from the traumas of the COVID-19 pandemic on the U.S. and the global market. Besides, the dramatic increase in the number of jobless claims also seems to weigh on the demand for crude oil. 

BTC/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance

6,999       7,130

6,936       7,196

6,806      7,327

Pivot Point 7,066

BTC/USD – Daily Forecast

Bitcoin traded with a bearish bias to trade at 6,861 area after having violated the immediate support level of 7,000 level. Currently, the leading crypto pair may find support at 6,700 level as it's been extended by the upward trendline on the 4-hour timeframe. 

Violation of this level can open further room for selling until 6,577 area while resistance holds around 6,920 and 7,210. Bearish bias seems dominant below the 6,920 level today.

EUR/USD – German ZEW Economic Sentiment

Today in the early Asian session, the EUR/USD currency pair registered further losses and dropped to 1.0825 from 1.0870 level during the Asian trading hours as the broad-based US dollar continues to taking bids due to Monday's oil prices crash in the wake of coronavirus negative impact. 

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0833 and consolidates in the range between the 1.0825 - 1.0872. The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.0870 to 1.0825 recently as the American dollar gained strength across the board, mainly against growth-linked Pacific currencies. The dollar index, tracking the value of the greenback against majors, rose 0.20% to levels above 100.00.

Most of the traders are preferring to choose the US dollar as a safe-haven-demand due to the fears of economic damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak. On the other hand, lower oil prices may boost real incomes and support consumer spending. Markets are currently worried about their adverse effects. The US shale industry and other oil producers could be damage from it.

Looking forward, as Germany's Zew Survey is scheduled to release at 09:00 GMT and will likely influence the shared currency. The data calendar across the pond is light with Existing Home Sales, which is scheduled to release at 14:00 GMT. The coronavirus related headlines could take the driver's seat.

EUR/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.0826      1.0907

1.0779      1.094

1.0698      1.1021

Pivot Point 1.0859

EUR/USD – Daily Forecast

The EUR/USD is trading sideways, holding mostly below previously violated trendline of 1.0859. Now, the EUR/USD currency pair continues to trade at 1.8411, holding below the strong resistance level of 1.0885. On the higher side, the next resistance holds at 1.0859 an 1.0930. While below 1.0859 level, the market has strong odds of falling further until the next support level of 1.0765. The downward breakout of 1.08230 can trigger a sell-off of up to 1.0725. Today, consider selling below 1.0859. 

GBP/USD UK Labor Report 

During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair suffered losses in Asia and could continue to lose ground in the European session mainly due to the coronavirus crisis continue to exerting bearish pressure on the British pound. The broad-based US dollar strength also keeps the currency pair lower. Although, the GBP/USD pair’s recent weakness towards revisiting a 21-day SMA level of 1.2355 recently took some strength from the pair’s decline to the 8-day low. 

At the press time, the GBP/USD pair is currently trading at 1.2408 and consolidates in the range between the 1.2389 - 1.2449. However, traders are cautious about placing any strong position ahead of the critical UK data. The GBP/USD currency pair could reverse its bearish bias, possibly if the surprisingly positive data comes during this day ahead.

At the data front, Early Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the March month Claimant Count figures along with the Unemployment Rate in the 3-months to February at 06:00 AM GMT.

The UK labor market report is expected to present the average weekly earnings, with bonuses, in the three months to February, with an increment of 3.0%. Meanwhile, the wages, excluding bonuses, are also expected to rise by 3.1% in the reported period.

It's worth mentioning that the number of people seeking jobless benefits, namely the Claimant Count Change, is expected to rise by 172.5K in March against +17.3K seen last. Moreover, the ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% during the period.

The U.K. Average Earnings, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), known as a key short-term indicator of how payment levels are changing in the UK economy, dropped sharply by 2.8%. Generally, the positive earnings growth forecasts consider positive (or bullish) for the British pound, whereas low figures seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP.

GBP/USD - Daily Technical Levels

Support Resistance 

1.2433      1.2544

1.2365      1.2586

1.2254      1.2697

Pivot Point 1.2475

GBP/USD – Daily Forecast

On Tuesday, the choppy trading in GBP/USD continues as the pair is trading within a narrow trading range of 1.2500 - 1.2400. Selling bias seems strong as the pair is striving to violate this choppy range on the lower side. With this, the GBP/USD may open further room for selling until 1.2300 and 1.2150. The GBP/USD will determine the next movement upon the breakout of this sideways channel, which is supporting Sterling at 1.2400 area along with resistance around 1.2525. The bearish bias remains strong today. 

Good luck!