A day before on Monday, the dollar spiked higher while global shares slipped as European stock indices clocked their severest day in a month after dark business activity figures in Europe escalated the fears of a potential recession.
On Tuesday, the single currency euro is trading into losses after soft economic figures on German manufacturing knocked down the trader’s confidence. Whereas, the greenback found broad support as investors watched for indications of progress from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations.
Economic Calendar – BOJ Gov Kuroda Speaks
BTC/USD – Daily Analysis
The BTC/USD seems to have violated the support level of 9,800 as it trades at 9,700 area during the Asian session. Lately, the leading cryptocurrency pair fell dramatically from 10,000 trading area to 9,600 zones.
On the 4-hour timeframe, the BTC/USD is facing support at the “double bottom” level of 9,600. Closing of BTC/USD above this level is signaling chances of a bullish reversal. Below this, the BTC/USD has a probability of going after 9,475.
The relative strength index is finally peaking out of the oversold zone, suggestings odds of a bullish retracement in the BTC/USD today. On the chart, you can also see the Fibonacci indicator. The BTC/USD may gain bullish momentum until 38.2% Fibo levels at 9,785 while above this 50% Fibo level will be extending resistance at 9,850.
BTC/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 9,965.17
BTC/USD – Daily Forecast
Bitcoin’s medium-term range continues to be the same 9297 – 10250. However, the BTCUSD bearish rally hit previously suggested target level of 9565 area. For now, the previously violated 9816 support is likely to work as a resistance. On the lower side, the closer support is expected to be found at 9565 and 9350 zones.
EUR/USD – Weaker Manufacturing Figure Weights
A day before, the EUR/USD pair opened with $1.10120 and has placed a low of $1.09660. Most of the selling triggered on weaker than expected economic data. The French Flash Services PMI came as 51.6 which were supposed to be 53.1. At 12:30 GMT, German Flash Manufacturing PMI came as 41.4 which were expected to be 44.6. The German Flash Services PMI came as 52.5 and were supposed to be 54.3.
The Purchasing manager’s Index (PMI) summarizes the market conditions from the viewpoint of purchasing managers. It tells about the prevailing directions of economic trends in both the manufacturing & service sectors. These sectors cover more than about 2/3rd of the economy and the data about PMI released today showed that both French & German’s private areas are weakening.
This data release also raised concerns over the odds of the German economy falling into recession. The weak euro caused EUR/USD to fell after the data release and created a bearish trend for the pair at the beginning of the new week.
At 18:00 GMT, European Central Bank’s President, Mario Draghi said that the growth momentum of the Eurozone has slowed significantly more than expected. He said that under current uncertain geopolitical circumstances the international trade has become weaker and causing the slowdown of Eurozone’s economic growth.
He mentioned that there was a need for accommodative monetary policy in the current uncertain period. He also mentioned his concerns by saying that if the global political and trade situations remained the same for a more extended period, they could affect the growth of other sectors of the economy as well. Draghi repeated that European Central Bank would adjust all its instruments if needed because such an uncertain period demands a stronger contribution of fiscal & monetary policy.
After ECB President’s speech, the pair rebound a little and took the price to $1.09954. At 18:45 GMT, the U.S. Flash Manufacturing PMI came as 51.0 which were expected to be 50.3; the secure data release made the USD move upward, causing the EUR/USD pair weak. The pair is currently trading at $1.09892.
EUR/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 1.1032
EUR/USD – Daily Forecast
The EUR/USD continues to farm lower’s low and lower’s high, suggesting a bearish bias among traders. With that being said, the EUR/USD pair is likely to trade bearish below 1.0999 area.
The bullish breakout can lead its prices towards 1.1025 area. On the lower side, the bearish targets are likely to be 1.1.0965 and 1.0930.
GBP/USD – Weaker Inflation Weights
Yesterday, the GBP/USD opened at $1.24644 and had placed a low of $1.24124 by the end of the day. The pair is showing a downward trend today. In last week GBP/USD moved in mixed directions due to both currencies’ healthy behavior.
Sterling strengthened last week due to the speculation about the possibility of a new Brexit deal by the UK government. However, the statement by Irish official that both sides EU and UK were far away from making a deal weighed the growth of EUR/USD pair at the end of the week. Hence it closed the market last week in a bearish trend.
Ahead this week, Mark Carney, Bank of England Governor, will be making a speech on Thursday, 26th Sept. at 18:45 GMT. Traders will be looking forward to his speech as it can affect the pound directly.
The USD was also stronger last week as the demand for a single currency was high because of prevailing geopolitical tensions and China-US trade-related issues. US Dollar is considered safe money in safe-haven circumstances, so its demand rose in previous weeks. Saudi Arabia and Iran tensions, along with the refusal of the Chinese delegate to visit US farms, created a safe-haven sentiment in the market.
The release of Flash Manufacturing PMI at 18:45 GMT as 51.0 was higher than expected strengthened the US dollar and made the pair GBP/USD to move downward. The pair is currently trading at $1.24318.
The lack of release of critical economic data related to GBP next week shows, that the pair GBP/USD will be moving forward in a direction set by the geopolitical situations & international trade relations for now.
Any development in the Brexit deal could also influence this pair highly in the future as the upcoming talks between the UK and EU are due in the coming days.
GBP/USD – Daily Technical Levels
Pivot Point 1.2482
GBP/USD – Daily Forecast
As forecasted, the GBPUSD traded bearishly below 1.2570 area, and it had already hit the support level of 1.2435. For now, the Cable may find an immediate resistance at 1.2415, and below this, the GBP/USD may fell deeper towards 1.2395 area.
On the upper side, resistance stays at 1.2440, and bullish breakout may lead this pair towards 1.2465 and 1.2480.
All the best for today.